Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Today's Statistical Analysis:

First: some housecleaning. When the phrase 'Its absence proves the negative' was used in the last post, it should have been rendered into Latin, as it is a scientific law among statisticians.
So, suus absentis probo infitialis shall be the motto, or at least a handy explanation (I am fond of our current motto, 'Everything you suspected is true', because it is, and there is comfort in such notions) for much of what we know and find. Please make a note of it.

HETEROSEXUAL MARRIAGE FOUND TO CAUSE CRIME! We here at the Bureau generally eschew political "hot potatoes", as we find such things distasteful. That said, we have uncovered some astonishing new statistics that happen to intersect with a topic much in the news today.

An issue that has been repeatedly raised in the last several election cycles has been whether or not homosexual marriage being recognized by the state is per se injurious to the state. The arguments supporting the view that it would be are religious in nature, and therefore cannot be proved or disproved. What few non-religious arguments that have been forwarded have been proved to be religion-based, ultimately, when not entirely incoherent: "Opponents say same-sex marriage would undermine traditional male-female marriage, rendering men and women interchangeable and destroying the connection between children and marriage."
So far, no noteworthy civil or legal argument has been put forth, the terrifying specter of interchangeable men and women to one side.

It hasn't been scientifically explored at all, but the possibility that homosexual marriage might be good for society certainly looms in the absence of any evidence of it being bad (or, suus absentis probo infitialis). No evidence, that is, unless one considers the overwhelming disapproval of God, though that entity is impossible to subpoena, and can't be held to damages.
In fact, through the science of statistics, it can now be said to be certain that it wouldn't be a bad thing, since those who say so cannot prove their case. Ipso facto: Gay Marriage Is Good!

So the unexplored territory is: does this de facto mean that heterosexual marriage is harmful to society?

Damage to society is measured by crime, death and damage to infrastructure. Statistics on longevity vis a vis marriage are often published, with marriage and good health inevitably linked (source: any daily newspaper, every six months or so).
(Troublingly, it would seem that the article cited actually contradicts this belief, even employing the phrase "no warrant for the current belief". However, the article is from February 1875, and certainly we have had some scientific progress made since then. Additionally, everyone thinks this is true, so it is.)

No numbers are currently extant as to sexual orientation/marital status regarding impact on roads. One may assume that the numbers cancel one another out, until you consider that while homosexual couples may adopt children (in some states), they still do not have the ability to breed incontinently, whenever they feel like it, populating the landscape far and wide with their issue. Big families need big vehicles, big vehicles are damaging to roads, hence: heterosexual pairings damage infrastructure!

Now, the crime statistics are more difficult to parse. Our colleagues at the Department of Justice (though we are not, strictly speaking, a governmental organization, they are our allies in science) responded by playfully attempting to drown us in information, like spiteful prosecuting attorneys.

Our initial query was ;
I am seeking some statistical data for a research project
regarding the incidence of violent, drug-related or
molestation crimes (or any crimes including fraud,
confidence schemes or stalking)
committed by offenders who were in
heterosexual marriages at the time.
I suspect that the numbers are available.
Thank you.

And the reply was;
The questions you ask are very broad, and
not specific enough to give a you a concise answer.

Then they proceeded to list no less than thirty possible resources, with the possibly smirky phrase, "I hope this was helpful and thank you for asking BJS."

But the problem with all of the reference wells was that they seemed to do statistical analysis on anything but marital status. The Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report for 2008 as aggregated by the FBI has many categories, such as:
Percent Change by Population Group
Percent Change by Geographic Region
Percent Change for Consecutive Years and
Offenses Reported to Law Enforcement by State by City 100,000 and over in Population


None of which are helpful to this office. The National Criminal Justice Reference Service, on the other hand, was potentially more helpful in that it showed conclusively that marital rape is 100% caused by marriage. (And it might even be probable that marriage causes suicide.)

Another study is more of a wash, although including the perhaps-telling phrase, "marriage...may simply be another indicator of social irresponsibility." And this DASIS Report paints a positively rosy picture of marriage re: marital status and substance abuse treatment admissions for 2005.

But this detracts from the original hypothesis, which is that things like spousal abuse, child abuse, "accidental" shootings and the like must per se happen with greater regularity among The Married. And from there one may note that the percentage of married adults in the United States probably dwarfs the number of unmarried adults, so therefore more of The Married are criminals. Alcohol abuse and related crime is almost certainly high, knowing what we know of marriage.
The overwhelming number of crimes committed merging with the enormous number of marriages would seem to more than prove the original hypothesis, but the scientific community at large seems mum on the subject. When they can be roused from their slumber at all, it seems that they inevitably croak something about how prisoners who want to visit with their families do better somehow, and when they note the large number of married offenders, they say that those marriages are unhappy, and criminals tend to marry other criminals anyhow.

So it would seem that the verdict comes by dint of conspiracy: heterosexual marriage causes crime, and perhaps even more so than we are being told.

Since all society is plagued by crime, it might be a bit disingenuous to point in only one direction, of course, and one wonders what dangerous forces might be unleashed by doing so. For instance, God cannot be sued, but can God bring suit for libelling His favorite social institution? This office awaits a reply.

No comments:

Post a Comment